Nber business cycle dating committee

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Average, all cycles: On the other hand, the unemployment rate often continues to rise after activity has reached its trough. A bulge in jobless claims usually forecasts declining employment and rising unemployment, but we do not use the initial claims numbers in determining our chronology, partly because of noise in that data series. The Committee does not have a fixed definition of economic activity. Some economists use it to refer only to the portion of these periods when economic activity is declining.

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The Business Cycle Dating Committee's general procedure for determining the dates of business cycles.

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The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee

Does the NBER keep a record of when it announced the determination of the dates of peaks and troughs prior to those given in the Bureau's website? Economics of Research and Innovation in Agriculture. Infor example, the recession did not include two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. In the current recovery, the lag was only 4 months, from the trough in activity in June to the highest level of the unemployment rate in October How do the movements of unemployment claims inform the Bureau's thinking?

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